Projections of Water Demand under Changing Land Use in Beijing

[Projections of Water Demand under Changing Land Use in Beijing]

Beijing Municipality, as one of the biggest economic-concentrated areas in China, has suffered from an extremely serious water deficiency for decades. Excessive access to water resource has not only broken the water balance, but has also brought about some serious problems to regional environment, such as the frequent cut-off discharge, the shrink of wetlands, the exhaustion of ground water resources and the deterioration of water quality. Except for the climate change in physical dimension, unlimited industrial enlargement, extensive agricultural irrigation, continuous improvement of living standard and increasing ecological demand constitute the main factors in human dimension to influence the change of balance between water supply and water demand. Land-use changes might be the best concept to combine all these factors for they could reflect the changes both in physical conditions and in social economy. This working paper focuses on the relationship between sustainable water-use and land- use changes in Beijing Municipality. Rather than taking a more traditional, static approach of forecasting future use based solely on per capita consumption rates and/or population statistics, the analysis documented in this study is based on models of future land-use changes. Both spatial and temporal distribution models are applied to project the future land-use changes in Beijing. The resulting water demand per land-use type can be useful tools for forecasting water demand in the area as well as actual water supply. The feasible recommendations on regional water-use policies will be put forward accordingly.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Language: Inglés

Format: PDF

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